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Backtest: the model is trained only on the past, predicts each following hour, then rolls forward (walk-forward). Live: every published forecast is scored once the real price is known.
Bitcoin reacts to other crypto-assets (Ethereum, crypto stocks such as Coinbase), to the US dollar and interest rates, and to crypto and central-bank news.
Our own combination of statistical and machine-learning models and variables, re-tested every week on data it has never seen. The weekly automatic selection keeps what performs best for this asset.